Investment Themes · Power

Power and the AI Buildout

An investor framework for separating available electricity, contractual commitments and delivered computing—and tracing who bears the cost.

Published October 8, 2026; Intel procurement and Harlow solar sections updated October 11, 2026. Earlier source publication and review dates are preserved. Selected case studies are not a complete market survey or current company financial model.

The investment takeaway · Our analysis

Power can determine when a computing project becomes usable and whether its economics work. Investors should follow both physical delivery and the commercial terms: who funds infrastructure, who pays if demand falls short, and which company has documented economic exposure.

Who participates—and what we can establish

Three decisions worth following

  1. Cost allocation: who funds generation, substations and transmission, and what protections apply if demand is lower than planned?
  2. Delivery: what evidence establishes the actual connection, energization and customer service for this phase?
  3. Economics: are contract prices, financing and utilization disclosed sufficiently to assess costs and cash conversion?

Verified case studies

Approved service terms with unresolved legal/resource questions

The Arizona Corporation Commission’s January 2026 statement describes the December 3, 2025 approval of TEP’s service agreement and protections against cost shifting. The Attorney General challenged the approval; September reporting did not establish a final judgment. This supports analysis of contractual protections and legal risk, not verified energization or realized utility earnings.

Our analysis: a final documented legal outcome, phase-specific utility delivery and durable resource arrangements would change execution confidence.

Beale Project Blue / South Houghton campus · full evidence →

Source documents and claim support
  • Pima County Administrator · published 2026-04-23 · reviewed 2026-10-08

    Original progress memorandum establishes June 17, 2025 specific-plan/acquisition approval and December 24 land closing, $20.85 million land proceeds. Attachment 2 lists permit statuses as of April 23: P25SC00120 issued site construction; P26BP01453 approved other structures; P25SC00140 and P26RW00417 corrections requested. Opened dates are not issuance dates. No building occupancy or delivered service is established.

  • Pima County Administrator · published 2025-12-24 · reviewed 2026-10-08

    Closing memorandum documents assignment from Humphrey’s Peak Properties LLC to affiliated Bobcat B1 LLC, obligations retained and funding in escrow. This contemporaneous memo expected closing that day; the later April memo confirms completion.

  • Arizona Corporation Commission · published 2026-01-21 · reviewed 2026-10-08

    Docket E-01933A-25-0187 / Decision 81587: December 3, 2025 ESA approval stands after rehearing applications automatically denied. Staff’s no-cost-shift/reliability conclusions are regulator findings, not independent measured outcomes. Minimum billing and termination-security protections summarized; not energization.

  • Arizona Attorney General · published 2026-02-19 · reviewed 2026-10-08

    Attorney General announces filed Maricopa County appeal on February 19, seeking to vacate ESA approval over disputed rate-setting authority. Attached complaint is dated February 18; court-stamped filing date/case identifier not established from that copy. Allegations are not judicial findings.

  • Beale Infrastructure · published date not established · reviewed 2026-10-08

    Current issuer page identifies South Houghton campus / Project Bobcat, TEP service pathway and air-cooled closed-loop design. Reports Q1 2026 construction start and 2028 initial-building target; dates are company milestones. $3.6 billion investment and fiscal/job figures are forecasts, not capital raised or earned revenue.

  • AZPM · published 2026-05-28 · reviewed 2026-10-08

    Original journalism reports ADWR well approvals linked to Bobcat Tucson Water LLC and photographs site activity on April 24. Well permission is not whole-campus authorization; precise well identifiers were not established from primary records.

  • AZPM · published 2026-05-06 · reviewed 2026-10-08

    Reports Tucson revoked a construction water meter on May 4 after disputed use. This is a construction-water issue, not proof of campus cancellation or completed operating-water arrangements.

  • Arizona Attorney General — complaint · published date not established · reviewed 2026-10-08

    Original complaint, signed February 18, challenges Decision81587 and cites August25 ESA application for 286 MW first-phase electricity. Copy has no court case number or filing stamp. It establishes legal allegations/requested relief, not a judgment or measured operating IT load. Publication date not established; date retained is document signature date.

  • KJZZ / Taylor Griffith · published 2026-09-24 · reviewed 2026-10-08

    Original court-hearing reporting describes September24 arguments over intervention timing and future ratemaking. Judge discussed clarification but issued no verdict at that hearing. This later document establishes active litigation, not a final outcome.

A customer-funded substation expansion with conditions

Santa Clara’s May 27, 2025 action authorized Intel’s Juliette substation agreement. A later city staff report says the agreement was executed; its reference to June 2025 approval differs from the earlier recorded May 27 vote. On February 10, 2026, the council adopted a construction-contract award to Par Western Line Contractors with a $12,889,123 ceiling including 15% contingency. Staff say Intel funds the works and applicable load-development fees. This advances procurement evidence, not proof of completed works, accepted incremental capacity or expenditure already incurred.

Update source: City of Santa Clara — File 26-15010 · February 10, 2026 action; reviewed October 11, 2026

Our analysis: contract execution is now reported; completed transformer works and documented incremental utility acceptance remain the next delivery evidence.

Intel Mission Campus / Santa Clara enterprise data centers · full evidence →

Source documents and claim support
  • City of Santa Clara · published 2025-05-27 · reviewed 2026-10-08

    File 25-80, created January 7: consent approval May 27 authorizes manager to execute Juliette substation agreement. Existing 62 MVA allocation; planned 17 MVA addition to 79 MVA no earlier than August 1, 2029, conditional on System Expansion Plan and other terms. Intel funds all substation costs plus estimated $10 million load-development fee; SVP owns/operates infrastructure. Authorization does not prove execution or completion.

  • DatacenterDynamics / Sebastian Moss · published 2025-06-04 · reviewed 2026-10-08

    Specialist reporting describes utility expansion economics. Its approval-pending wording is superseded by the city’s recorded May 27 vote; neither story proves construction or energization.

  • DatacenterDynamics / Sebastian Moss · published 2019-03-13 · reviewed 2026-10-08

    Original site visit/interviews document operating converted D2 fab and enterprise/chip-design computing. Historical 31 MW D2P3 and 5 MW D2P4 capacities are 2019 reported figures, not verified current load or separate campuses.

  • Intel IT · published 2021-07 · reviewed 2026-10-08

    Operator white paper describes Santa Clara fuel-cell pilots including 2018 5 MW installation and later configurations. Historical company resilience claims do not establish current fleet, supplier contracts or Bangalore deployment at this campus.

  • Intel Explore Mission Campus · published date not established · reviewed 2026-10-08

    Primary campus page identifies D2P3/D2P4 and historical recycled-water/cooling practices. Metrics date to 2013–17; site build footer is not evidence of refreshed performance or current readiness.

A proposed solar pathway alongside contracted computing demand

Downing’s November 18, 2025 announcement described a prospective private-wire solar development up to 40 MW and planned PPA. Its current Green Data Solar Farm project page, reviewed October 11, 2026, describes a 30 MW proposal and ongoing design surveys. The page’s publication or revision date is not established, so the timing and reason for the change cannot be certified. Neither description establishes commissioning or continuously available electricity. Kao Data’s 22 MW Nebius campus agreement is separate and not assigned wholly to KLON-03.

Update source: Downing — current Green Data Solar Farm proposal · Publication/update date not established; reviewed October 11, 2026

Our analysis: distinguish renewable-energy arrangements, firm availability and actual computing commissioning before assessing delivery or cash economics.

Kao Data Harlow AI campus / KLON-03 · full evidence →

Source documents and claim support
  • Kao Data · published 2025-03-12 · reviewed 2026-10-07

    KLON-03 construction announcement: 17.6 MW planned AI capacity, hybrid direct-to-chip cooling and up to 130 kW racks are company design claims.

  • Infratil · published 2026-05-26 · reviewed 2026-10-07

    FY26 presentation, PDF page 24 (printed 19): KLON-03 construction progressing; capacity expected from early 2027. Materially all operating and under-construction capacity was contracted at year-end. Revenue £48 million and EBITDAF £4.7 million are Kao-wide figures.

  • Environment Agency · published 2026-06-03 · reviewed 2026-10-07

    Permit EPR/WE4588AB/V002 granted to Harlow Operations Limited June 3, 2026. Adds KLON-03 emergency generators and extra KLON-01/02 units. 152 MW combined thermal combustion input is not IT load.

  • Kao Data · published 2026-06-08 · reviewed 2026-10-07

    22 MW ten-year Nebius campus agreement; AI Cloud and Token Factory to be hosted at Harlow. The entire allocation is not attributed solely to KLON-03.

  • DatacenterDynamics · published 2026-06-08 · reviewed 2026-10-07

    Independent specialist reporting of the Nebius agreement and national investment plan. Historical building capacity figures differ from the current operator profile.

  • Downing Renewable Developments · published 2025-11-18 · reviewed 2026-10-07

    Prospective private-wire solar development up to 40 MW with planned PPA; announcement does not establish solar commissioning or continuous firm electricity.

  • Kao Data / Shell agreement · published 2026-07-02 · reviewed 2026-10-07

    Shell Energy UK signed renewed supply agreement July 1, published July 2. Kao-wide approximately 140 GWh annual supply since 2022 is renewable-certificate matched, not exclusive Harlow generation.

A practical catalyst checklist

Follow executed service terms, regulator decisions and appeals, financing close, completed network works, utility acceptance and delivered customer service. A permit may cover generators only; MW electrical allocation, MVA substation rating and IT load are different measures.

Track project catalysts → · Compare evidence and readiness → · Weekly Investor Briefings →

What remains unknown

These cases do not provide comparable current utility tariffs, metered IT loads or project-level earnings. No ranking of stocks or forecast investment return follows from this framework. Keep each project’s conditions and dates attached to the specific phase.